As part of the initiatory seminar “Conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Effects, possible solutions and the role of the Federal Republic of Germany,” which took place at GIGA Berlin from 18 to 20 February 2026, Prof. Dr. Martin Gassebner delivered a keynote address on Thursday afternoon titled “The Economic Cost of War.” Addressing an interdisciplinary audience from academia, policy advisory circles, and civil society, Gassebner analyzed the economic consequences of armed conflicts, with particular attention to fragile states such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The seminar was organized by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in cooperation with GIGA and combined academic analysis with political education. It focused on the causes and dynamics of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, current peace efforts, and the role of international actors, particularly Germany, in potential stabilization processes. The aim was to examine the complex political, security-related, and economic dimensions of the conflict in a differentiated manner and to discuss possible courses of action in the tension between peace policy and power politics.
In his speech, Prof. Dr. Martin Gassebner examined the economic consequences of armed conflict using the Democratic Republic of the Congo as a case study. The Central African country has been shaped for decades by partially internationalized internal conflicts, with the deadliest episode occurring during the Second Congo War from 1998 to 2003, in which more than five million people lost their lives. To this day, the security situation remains tense due to armed groups, localized violence, and fragile state structures. The presentation centered on the economic effects from both macro and micro perspectives: the destruction of physical capital, the loss of human capital, disruptions in labor markets, setbacks in structural transformation, and severe and persistent declines in international trade. Drawing on empirical studies, he demonstrated that conflicts not only cause immediate losses in production but can also generate long-term structural damage. In conclusion, he emphasized that the economic costs of war do not consist solely of material destruction, but also of distorted incentives that hinder sustainable economic recovery. In this sense, reconstruction is fundamentally a political economy problem: for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, weak institutional frameworks, particularly limited state capacity, remain a decisive challenge for meaningful recovery.
